Do 20-Year Forecasts in the Field of International and Security Policy Tell Us Anything Interesting?

Method and Decision

Picture: Max Pixel

The rapid changes in the world and the occurrence of disruptive events—the latest being the covid-19 pandemic—seem to challenge forecasting and prospective analysis in the international domain. On some points, the cause is clear and it must be recalled at the outset: no one can predict the precise events that are likely to change the…